There are three kinds of voters in a general election:
- one third will vote Democrat no matter who's on the ticket
- one third will vote Republican no matter who's on the ticket
- and one third will vote for the person they like the most
However, in a primary, the third group does not vote. Thus, primaries tell us nothing about the relative general election strengths of a nominee.
Regardless of who gets the Republican nod, the first two groups will be highly motivated and will show-up to vote in November. How will the the third group treat Romney and will they like him?
All you need to do is watch the left, and they are really scared of Mitt Romney. Here's why:
- Last time around, Barack Obama won the votes of white women.
- White women never warmed-up to John McCain. (or Sarah Palin)
- This time around, Obama needs those white women again.
- Apparently, white women like Mitt Romney.
We always hear about "swing states" but really this will come down to "swing voters", and in 2012, they will be white women.
Mitt Romney cannot be painted as a misogynist, and white women are already warm to him. Mitt Romney will be the Republican's strongest candidate with these swing voters.