Thursday, August 11, 2011

What is Gold?

Gold has been on a remarkable run lately. What is Gold and why is it worth so much more today? Gold is like idiot insurance. When you buy gold you are buying an insurance policy to protect you against the stupidity of idiots who may be interfering in monetary and economic matters. When idiots are in charge, and regularly doing stupid things, gold rises in value. ‘Nuff said.

So what is a stock and why are stocks struggling? Stocks are like genius coattails. When you buy a stock you are hitching a ride on the coattails of the geniuses who innovate and create value from nothing more than their own industry. Unfortunately, the same idiots who are driving up the value of gold are also interfering with the ability of geniuses to innovate and create value. When idiots are in charge, and regularly doing stupid things, stocks will eventually struggle. ‘Nuff said.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Inept, Immoral, and Insane.

Barack Obama elbowed his way into our living rooms the other day and stole a quarter hour of our time to lecture us with the most vacuous poll-tested drivel imaginable from a President of the United States. I’ll leave the political analysis for the experts in that area and instead focus on the economic logic of President Obama’s poll-tested “balanced approach” to raising the debt ceiling.

By “balanced approach”, President Obama is referring to a mix of new revenues from higher taxes combined with some unspecified spending cuts. Sounds reasonable right? After all, why not use every tool available, including revenue, to close this dire budget gap? Besides, isn’t it Democrat lore that Bill Clinton raised taxes AND balanced the budget? Unfortunately, none of that is plausible, despite making for potent political rhetoric. Let’s review:

First of all, there is a ceiling on the amount of total tax revenue that can be collected and sustained. That amount is 18% of GDP.  That’s not some number I’m making up. That number is proven by over 65 years of US tax collecting history and all the proclamations of politicians to the contrary cannot undo that reality. The top marginal rate fluctuated from as high as 92% to as low as 28% during that 65 year period, but the total take stayed rock solid OVER TIME at 18% of GDP. This is remarkable and irrefutable. Meanwhile, spending is at 25% of GDP and rising fast under the Obama spending blowout. Tax revenue cannot bridge the gap between 18% and 25%. Only lowering spending and growing GDP can do that, and tax hikes can only impede those goals.

Mention the above to any fan of higher taxes and they will immediately shoot back: “What about Clinton? Didn’t he raise taxes and balance the budget?” Ah yes, the Clinton “beer goggles” are potent indeed. Sure, Clinton did raise marginal tax rates on the very rich in 1993 from 31% to 39.6%, but he was also dragged into an across the board drop in the long-term capital gains rate by the Republicans who were swept into power in 1994. That drop, which eventually became law in 1997, was from an EFFECTIVE rate of 29.19% to 21.19%.*  Remember, the income tax hike was only on those earning more than $250,000 while the lower capital gains rate was available to any tax-payer. The cap-gains drop actually had a more marked impact on revenue and growth as evidenced by the proliferation of tech-boom stock options and a stock market rally which began on the day after the election of the Republican congress and which fueled both metrics. In other words, Clinton ended up being a net tax CUTTER, and that fueled short term revenue growth as well as GDP growth! Unfortunately, it was all based on two bubbles (tech and housing) which soon burst and resulted in a regression back to the mean over several years. As for the balanced budget which Clinton will always be credited with? He was dragged kicking and screaming to it by a combination of the net tax cut and an unusually thrifty Republican congress. Democrats know all this, but they’re hoping you don’t.

Again, the politics of this approach I'll leave to the experts, but the economics are pretty clear: Inept, Immoral, and Insane.

* Although the published rates are different, the tax code is thousands of pages long and the EFFECTIVE rates are what matters.  See link below:
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=161

Friday, July 22, 2011

Tax Axiom

Deficits = Spending – Current Taxes

Spending varies, but Current Taxes are virtually constant over time at 18% of GDP come hell or high water.


Source: White House OMB

That leaves only two variables in the deficit equation: Spending and GDP. The only way to lower deficits is to grow GDP and cut spending. Period. Tax hikes will do nothing but cause turbulence. That much is axiomatic.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Fat Kids Should Sue!

Perhaps you've seen this headline: "Fat Kids Should Be Taken From Their Parents - Harvard Expert Says!"

There's a tragic irony in this whole obesity "epidemic":  THE GOVERNMENT TOLD US TO EAT THE WRONG STUFF!


It turns out, by the time it hits the bloodstream, a bagel equals a can of Coke.  In other words, the government has been telling parents for years to feed their kids 6-11 servings of Coke a day!  (Plus the carbs in the other categories.)   And now experts want the government to punish the parents?  For what?  Following orders?   

I think fat kids should file a class action suit.  Where is the new Dickie Scruggs

Friday, July 8, 2011

A New Mission for NASA?

Today marks the final launch of a US Space Shuttle and that leaves NASA in search of a new mission.  Search no more!

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Bathtubs, Bombers, and Basketballs

Here are some things to keep in mind during the unfolding Debt Ceiling Drama:

1. ALL TAXES ARE FLAT IN THE LONG RUN. You may have heard politicians say they want to raise taxes only on “The Rich”, or that 50% of Americans “Pay No Income Tax” at all. Those statements may be true in a political sense, but they are meaningless economically. Think of the total economy as a big bathtub: you can try to take water from only one end, but it will quickly even out after a period of turbulence. If your lawyer’s taxes go up, so will his rates. The same is true for corporations: If ExxonMobil’s taxes go up, you will pay more for gas. Any tax not levied on individuals at an equal rate will create turbulence and the further we get from flat taxes on individuals, the more turbulence we will create in the economic bathtub.

2. TAXES ARE EVEN HIGHER THAN YOU THINK. The rate for all taxes and regulations in the US - federal, state, and local - is currently 63.41%!* That’s right, you only get to keep about thirty seven cents of every dollar you earn! How could you not know this? The reason is Stealth Taxes. Stealth Taxes are everywhere. They are the B-2 Stealth Bombers in our tax code and are undetectable to a voter’s radar. Regulations, payroll taxes, corporate taxes, inflation, unfunded mandates, embedded taxes, and the cost of compliance are just some of the taxes stealthily bombing your economic freedom every day. Somehow though, you do sense this, but while 64% of voters think taxes are too high, only 13% of the political class agrees!**

3. THIS IS ALL POLITICS IN THE SHORT RUN, BUT IN THE LONG RUN ECONOMICS WILL RULE. Think of the laws of economics as you would the laws of physics. In this case, political maneuvers like bailouts, reckless spending, money printing, artificially low interest rates, and an unsustainable tax rate of 63% are like politicians trying to hold a basketball deeper and deeper underwater. These tactics may delay the inevitable for a time, but eventually that basketball will get loose and explode from the depths. When that happens, watch out!

*Source: Center for Fiscal Accountability
http://www.fiscalaccountability.org/?content=cogdteas10
**Source: Rasmussen Reports
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/taxes/april_2011/64_say_americans_are_overtaxed_political_class_disagrees

Friday, June 17, 2011

Useful Idiots - Blogtoon

Useful Idiots:  Dangerous yes.  But funny too!

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

The Outsourced Presidency

Yesterday President Obama commented on Anthony Weiner’s 3 weeks of stunning moral depravity and offered this remarkable piece of leading-from-behind:  "if it was me, I'd resign".  But of course it’s not him, so he has effectively abdicated any leadership role and left it up to Mr. Weiner to decide his own fate.

So in Obama we have a president who has outsourced healthcare policy to Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. He has outsourced financial policy to Barney Frank and Chris Dodd. He has outsourced foreign policy to the UN and the Arab League. He has outsourced the deficit to Joe Biden. He has outsourced military intelligence to the Muslim countries. He has outsourced his economic policy to the Unions and the EPA. He has outsourced our jobs to the Chinese. He has outsourced our energy policy to OPEC. He has even tried to outsource his dismal record to his predecessor.

And now he has outsourced his moral standards to Rep. Anthony Weiner. This leaves plenty of time for golf, vacations, parties, and fund raising of course.

Saturday, June 11, 2011

Obama is Right!

President Obama commented on the weak economy this week and said;  "We didn't get into this mess overnight."  He ought to know, he's been working on this for almost 20 years.

Obama's work began in earnest as a Community Organizer and affiliate of ACORN (Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now) when he was fighting alongside them and eventually helped win the Clinton era basket of reforms which led directly to the Subprime Crash and Financial Meltdown of 2008.  ACORN and their affiliates were in the forefront of the fight to force banks to make bad loans to politically favored constituents who were otherwise unqualified to obtain mortgages.  Obama was there in the 90s agitating with ACORN against these bank lending standards and then for the taxpayers to essentially assume all the risks under a huge fraud called "Fannie Mae".

But his work was not done, not by a longshot.   How many realize that as a US Senator, Barack Obama sucked up tainted Fannie Mae money at a staggering rate which dwarfed any other politician?  How many voters realize that Obama was referred to as the "Senator from Fannie Mae"?  How many realize that the fraud known as Fannie Mae was virtually a monsterous slush fund for the Democrat Party?

Yes, Obama is right, it took years to create this mess.  He ought to know, he's been there since the beginning working hard at it. 

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Wall Street Should Read This!

"Wall Street Baffled by Slowing Economy" ?   Maybe they should read this: The Irony of Keynes!
*This headline should have read, "Sycophantic Media Blindsided by Bad Economic Policies Blames Wall Street Myopia"! 

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Proof that God Exists, and Loves Glenn Beck!

Up until now I’ve been devoutly agnostic and somewhat skeptical of Glenn Beck’s public displays of faith, but that just changed! God clearly exists and loves Glenn Beck, for he has given us WEINERGATE!

For those not familiar with the Beck/Weiner Connection, Rep. Weiner (D-NY) aggressively harrassed a major Beck sponsor, GoldLine, in a very public, disingenuous over-reach for an elected official which was likely coordinated along with a boycott of Beck sponsors being run by close Obama operatives in the White House. This couldn’t be more delicious!

Sunday, May 29, 2011

The Ryan Mistake

Paul Ryan’s mistake was in trying to have an adult conversation with children. It reminds me of what it would be like for Israel to negotiate with Hamas – ain’t gonna happen when one party seeks the annihilation of the other. The Alinsky Democrats don’t give a hoot about making good policy. They have one goal in mind and that is the destruction of their enemy, who is anyone to the right of them.

So what to do?  In Ryan’s case, there actually are adults in the room and they are the people.  The challenge is communicating directly with the adults in the face of overwhelming negativity from AcadeMediaWood.  These adults might just understand that a voucher to buy some insurance is preferable to an empty promise from a bankrupt country.  (edited 6/22)

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Finally, a Leader in Washington

For the first time in almost two and a half years, I am proud of a national leader in Washington.   Today, he went before congress and spoke with clarity about liberty, peace, security, and founding principles.   He was forceful, graceful, and articulate.  His reason was sound and his positions well thought out.  Too bad President Obama was out of town and missed Netanyahu's excellent speech.   

Sunday, May 15, 2011

The Myth of Partisan Markets

Now that an election cycle is revving up you will no doubt be fed this nonsense by AcadeMediaWood - The Myth of Partisan Markets.  Bon appetit!

Unrelated update:  With NASA and the space shuttle in the news today, along with Obama's renewed outreach to the muslim world, I could not resist re-posting this Modest Proposal.   

Monday, May 2, 2011

Thank you "W"!

Today's good news is brought to you by the letter "W".   Waterboarding, Wiretapping, and War-on-Terror.   
The tip came from KSM who was famously Waterboarded, the courier he named was then Wiretapped, and the Seals brought the War to the Terrorist and killed him.  Thank you "W"! 

Comatose (w/ bin Laden update)

Hey, it's great that we finally got bin Laden!  I guess continuing Bush's War on Terror was not so bad after all!     

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Magic Bullets part VIII - The Oxygen Standard

We seem to have reached a stalemate in Washington trying to get a handle on our out-of-control deficits. Is it possible there is a simple way to deal with this and finally find out what our politicians are made of?

I propose we put our government on the “Oxygen Standard”. The Oxygen Standard is similar to the Gold Standard in that dollars are converted into a set quantity of oxygen, only in this case, the dollars are our government deficits or surpluses, and the oxygen is for our government officials to breathe.

Here’s how the Oxygen Standard would work: First, all three branches of government (yes, the court too!) would be housed in airtight chambers which would be locked-down during budget negotiations. If the resulting negotiations yielded a balanced budget, there would be exactly enough oxygen pumped in to balance the breathing needs of all the members. However, if there is a deficit, the same ratio will be reflected in an oxygen deficit being pumped in. Of course, if there is a surplus, extra oxygen will be supplied which would result in a “strategic oxygen reserve” which could be drawn down in times of war or natural disaster.

To make the Oxygen Standard even more real, there will be an additional way government can “tweak” the supply of oxygen during deficits. They could draw down the oxygen supply of future generations by allocating the needs of infants and the unborn for their own breathing consumption. Mass suffocations would eventually result, but government officials could at least spend away and breathe easier.

Any guesses as to how this would play out?

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

The Irony of Keynes

Welcome YouTubers!  Scroll down for more blogtoons and commentary.  But if you are inclined towards heavier fare, pls try this post:  The Irony of Keynes
Thanks for visiting!

Thursday, April 7, 2011

GE is Right!

You may have seen that GE, despite having a massively profitable year, will pay zero federal income taxes for 2010.  That’s right, less than you!  And this is the second year in a row.  I have no love for GE and its hearty embrace of crony capitalism, but they are doing the right thing by not paying any taxes. How can I say this? Because I believe no business entity should pay taxes, and that includes behemoth GE.

Let me ask you a question: How many people do you think would die of cancer each year if all cancer cells could be somehow trained to start growing on the tip of your nose? Every morning the first thing you would do is look in the mirror and see if you had any cancer. If you saw something, you would immediately have it removed. That would be the end of cancer, right?

The price of runaway government today is like cancer in that it hides undetected until the symptoms begin. By then, it’s often too late. If every citizen woke up every morning and could see the true cost of runaway government on the tips of their noses, they would never allow it to metastasize, and that would be its ultimate demise.

Business taxes are a good example of this disease. The fact is, businesses don’t actually pay taxes. Citizens do. Businesses merely collect taxes and pass the cost along to the next entity in the supply chain until an ultimate “end-user” buys the product and pays the cumulative tax. Economically literate politicians, (an oxymoron) know this full well, but will never end stealth taxes unless forced to because they are a perfect way to ensure that the cancer they caused stays undetected.

Right now in Washington there is an epic battle going on over budgets for this year and next and it makes for great drama on the nightly news.  But this tragic play will repeat ad infinitum as long as we allow the true cost of runaway government to stay undetected. Have you seen Paul Ryan and the few other responsible leaders working their tails off trying to treat this cancer? They remind me of lonely sentries on the deck of the Titanic yelling, “ICEBERG! ICEBERG!” to the sleeping passengers and crew. The masses are not listening and the ship is sinking. It’s a noble crusade Rep. Ryan is on, but there may be a more effective way.

Wouldn’t it be better if we just stopped hiding the cost of government and put it all in the open for everyone to see? Wouldn’t it be easier if the interests of voters and taxpayers were automatically aligned with the interests of the responsible members of government? Wouldn’t that be better than trying to convince an indifferent public to somehow care? Why not just pass a law to end stealth taxes once and for all? Why not put an end to business entity taxes, payroll matching taxes, mandates that force businesses to do the collecting, and any chance of a VAT ever getting passed?

All it would take is an itsy bitsy constitutional amendment with one sentence:  “All domestic revenues shall be collected directly from individuals.”

The effect of this would of course be higher tax rates on individuals, but the price of goods and services would go down by an equal amount. The net effect overall would be zero. This amendment would cost you nothing.

Would this cure the cancer? Let’s just say you’d be staring the true cost of the runaway government in the face everyday. Would you tolerate it metastasizing? Wouldn’t this amendment be worth working for, and at least campaiging on?  Pass this on to the candidate of your choice if you think so. 

Oh, and one other thing; small companies like maybe even yours, would have the exact same advantage that giant GE has today when filing taxes!

Friday, April 1, 2011

Swift Solution

With Louis Farrakhan in the news lately, I thought I'd re-post this tongue-in-cheek Swiftian proposal:
A Modest Proposal

Obama is Awesome! 2

This is the follow-up to "Libya vs. Iraq".

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Libya vs. Iraq - Some Thoughts

Did you know that Chimpanzees and Humans share overwhelming similarities in their genetic makeup? Though the percent varies depending on how deep the data goes, the similarities range from the high 70s to the high 90s. In other words, the similarities greatly outweigh the differences on the genetic level, yet the two are so completely different that no rational person taking a holistic view could mistake a Chimp for a Human. Yet, a top scientist locked in a room with only the two genetic codes in front of him could toil through a majority of the genetic code before finding any significant differences!

The point of this is simply to repeat the ancient observation that little can be understood about the true nature of things by examining their similarities; only by understanding their differences do we really get to know them.

The cartoon I recently posted comparing Libya vs. Iraq is a good example of the futility of focusing on similarities, or for that matter, the petty differences. As many commenters have pointed out, the cartoon, and those who liked it, cannot make a strong enough case that the two conflicts are comparable. Of course, the cartoon is limited to being a caricature of hypocrisy, ignorance and irrational devotion. It is not meant to argue a case that the two conflicts are equivalent. However, the nature of caricature is that it only works through exaggeration and that has resulted in quite the debate among viewers which has shed much heat but little light. (Also some funny stuff and some really nasty stuff too!)

So what do I think? Are these two wars comparable and if not what are the salient differences? For me, they are not comparable actions in their essence. Iraq was about trying to save American lives by enforcing something which came to be known as “The Bush Doctrine”, and Libya is about trying to save non-American lives on one side of a civil war by enforcing something known as UN 1973.

You may agree or disagree with “The Bush Doctrine” and the threats posed by the Iraqi regime, but your representatives in Washington voted for it overwhelmingly and that is what Democracy in a Republic looks like. Deal with it.

As for UN 1973, you may agree or disagree with it, but your representatives in Washington have no say in it whatsoever. That is what Global Totalitarianism looks like. Deal with it.